Markets All Over The Place by Australasian Investment Review

A bad day for shares again.But did we see a steadying emerge in late US trading?

After bouncing all over the place and mostly in the red, the US markets looked like closing with a small gain, but anther late burst of selling saw the major indexes end off up to 2% or so.

The Dow fell 190 points, or 2%, the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1.1% and Nasdaq dropped lost 0.8%.

The major indexes again swung wildly throughout the session, with the Dow down as much as 252 points and up as much as 180.

The Dow's fall was also due to the weakness in Alcoa which reported a 52% slump in third quarter earnings the night before. Alcoa fell 13%.

Gold rose, then eased, but was still up, copper and oil weakened and some grains were firmer in Chicago.Gold was up $US27 an ounce to around $US909 in New York.

Our market was looking to start higher, but the late drop on Wall Street pushed the futures market down by 12 points.

The co-ordinated interest rate cuts from the Fed, the ECB, the Swiss, Swedish, Canadian and the UK central banks helped: the 0.50% drop in each case was dramatic, but emphasised the forcefulness of our 1% cut from the RBA which has put Australia firmly ahead of the policy curve.

China wasn't a part of the deal, but trimmed its key rate by 0.27% in a surprise move.

European markets were down sharply last night with falls of 3% to 5% common for another day. Japan fell more than 9% and other Asian markets were off more than 5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 8.2% in an example of near panic trading, just like Tokyo.

London was very weak on the looming bailout fund announcement for the country's banks from the UK Government. London's FTSE 100 fell nearly 8% early on as investors were unconvinced about the bailout package.

Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was off 6% taking its loss this week so far to 13%. But the selling eased and it recovered from being down almost 8% atone stage.

The London FTSE 100 index of leading shares shed 5.2% after the bank bailout plan was announced, while in Paris the CAC 40 fell 6.4%.

Frankfurt's DAX lost 5.8%, the Swiss market shed 5.5% and 5.2% in Madrid after the Government there revealed a bailout plan. Milan fell 5.7% after it was suggested the country's banks needed to raise more capital.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 7.4% with Tokyo's Nikkei off 9.4%, the biggest drop since October 1987. Australia lost 5% or more, Indonesia shut after a 10% fall and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell to a fresh 2 year low despite an effective rate cut.

The Index is now off more than 42% this year

In Europe Russia's market was again closed after the main index fell more than 10%. The main US dollar index was off 14% when trading stopped. trading was also halted in the Ukraine and in Rumania.

The euphoria of Australia's rate cut on Tuesday was swamped after Wall Street fell more than 5% in a miserable day's trading that extended across the region.

Oil was easier, down by more than $US4 to just over $US86 a barrel, a 10 month low; copper lost ground to around $US2.49 a pound and gold edged up $US4 to trade around $US886 in Europe last night.

The Indonesian market was halted when the main index fell more than 10%. Jakarta's main index has tumbled 21% in the past week; the biggest drop in 25 years. Brazil's market was at two year lows. It's down 22% in the past five days.

The Nikkei plunged 9.4%, its biggest one-day drop since the 1987 stock market crash, as fear spread of a global recession, fuelled by expectations of a slide in profits at Toyota and the rapidly firming yen.

Volkswagen this week moved past a falling toyota to become the world's biggest car maker by market value. Volkswagen is subject to takeover speculation in Germany.

Tokyo brokers said that panic over the fast-spreading financial crisis dragged down markets across the region and in Japan the Nikkei set another five-year closing low.

The Hang Seng slumped 5.5% despite Hong Kong's monetary authority cutting interest rates to keep the credit crisis from spreading.

India's Sensex Index fell 3.1%; China's CSI 300 lost 3.8% and South Korea's Kospi lost 5.8% to the lowest since July 2006.

Australia's ASX 200 Index declined more than 5% as building approvals declined for a seventh month and consumer confidence fell. Alumina, an associate of Alcoa, lost ground after partner Alcoa reported a 52% drop in earnings. Alumina shares closed down 16% at $A2.50.

It was Australia's second-worst day of the year, closing down 5%, wiping out all of Tuesday's Reserve Bank-inspired rally and adding more than 3% in losses for good measure.

It was also the lowest close in three years for the stockmarket, while the Aussie dollar also plunged, hitting a low of well under 68 US cents (67.49 US cents in local trading)

The ASX200 index closed 230.6 points, or 5%, lower at 4388.1. The fall was second only to January 22's 7.1% hammering.

Among the banks, the ANZ Bank lost 6.3%, or $1.15, to $17.00, while NAB shed $1.65, or 6.4%, to $24.35.

Westpac dropped 6.9% or $1.60, to $21.67. The Commonwealth was in a trading halt after announcing it would pay $2.1 billion for BankWest, raising some $2 billion from institutional investors. St George lost 7.4%, or $2.24, to $28.12 and Suncorp shed 8.1%, or 89 cents, to $10.11.

Macquarie Group shares lost 9.2%, or $3.30, to $32.50 and Babcock and Brown fell 20%, or 25.5 cents, to $1.05.

Mining companies were again savaged as investors ignored the impact of a falling Australian dollar to focus on the worsening commodity prices and diminishing prospects for global economic growth.

BHP Billiton lost 5.7%, or $1.80, to $29.90, while its takeover target, Rio Tinto dropped 7.6%, or $6.65, to $81.12.

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About the Author

Australasian Investment Review (AIR) is a free daily news service covering global financial markets with a focus on Australia, New Zealand and Asia. Subscriptions are free at aireview.com.au

Stock Market Index History by Bradley A Johnson

Stock market indices play an important role in gauging the economic health and progress of a country. Oftentimes someone will say "the stock market is up" or "down" but that is not necessarily a meaningful statement. Understanding how stock market indices are calculated and their history can be very instrumental in understanding the stock market as a whole.

The Origin Of The Stock Market Index

As stock markets became more and more prevalent in industrialized countries, people began to look for a "barometer" of the stock market as a whole. The very first stock market index was the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which was created by Charles Dow in 1884. It was followed shortly thereafter by many more indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average which, in a very modified form, is still widely publicized and followed today.

How Indices Are Calculated

A stock market index is generally calculated by combining a weighted average of a set of particular stocks. For example, in the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 30 stocks are weighted by price to get a measurement of the market as a whole. It should be noted that all indices are somewhat arbitrary and are more useful as indicators of relative and historical growth rather than a raw number. Additionally, in many indices stocks often times are added or removed due to bankruptcies or simply becoming less relevant than another stock. Most recently Kraft Foods replace AIG in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Popular Stock Indices

The most popularly referenced American stock market indices are:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average - These are 30 of the largest American stocks.
The S&P 500 - The 500 large actively traded US stocks.
The NASDAQ Composite - An index of all the common stocks on the NASDAQ exchange.

Foreign Stock Indexes:

Other countries of course have their own stock markets and thus their own averages to use to measure them. Britain has the FTSE (pronounced like "Footsie") which is very similar to Americas S&P. Japan has their Nikkei average. Hong Kong has the Hang Seng. There are of course many more.

About the Author

Education is the key to success in the stock market. Arm yourself at Investing First Steps where you can learn all about investing including, how to start investing in the stock market.

Global Markets To Endure More Pain In 2009 by John S

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whereby the original author's information and copyright must be included.
Global Markets To Endure More Pain In 2009 by John S

A record $14 trillion (£9.7tn) has been wiped off world share values in 2008 as many stockmarkets around the world suffered their worst 12 months on record.

As we enter 2009 things are not looking up, regardless of what bad advice you are getting from you broker or the selection of idiot financial analysts out there.

Turmoil in the financial system and the worst global recession since the 1970s have sent shares reeling. Global stocks, as measured by the MSCI index, have fallen by a record 44% over the year.

In London, the FTSE 100 index lost 31.3% in 2008, its worst annual decline since it was created in 1984, and following a 3.8% gain in 2007. It edged up 0.94% to 4434.17 on the last trading day of the year, a gain of 41.49 points. Banks, at the centre of the financial storm, were among the biggest losers ranging from HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB to Barclays. Mining companies Kazakhmys, Xstrata and Rio Tinto also fared badly as the economy worsened.

Drugmakers AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline were among the best-performing stocks on the FTSE. British Energy was another big gainer, up more than 40% in a year in which the government secured the sale of its stake in the nuclear power firm to French energy giant EDF.

David Buik at BGC Partners talked of an "annus horribilis by any standards".

It started with the Northern Rock nationalisation, and got progressively worse. In March, US investment house Bear Stearns became the first major bank to be rescued from collapse and by the autumn scores of banks around the world had gone under - notably Lehman Brothers - or been bailed out. Lending between banks ground to a halt, triggering more government interventions, and most major economies slid into recession.

Sterling has also had its worst year against the euro since the single currency started life almost a decade ago. The pound staged a rally on the last day of the year, rising 2% to 95.44p versus the euro. But analysts say there was nothing to prevent further losses that could take the pair to parity, with UK interest rates set to fall close to zero in the new year from 2% now - far below rates in the eurozone, currently at 2.5%.

Against the dollar, the pound has lost nearly 27% over the year, the sharpest drop since the gold standard monetary system was abolished in 1971. It traded around $1.4605 today.

Oil dropped to $37 a barrel, heading for its worst year ever with a slump of more than 60%.

Last night, Wall Street took heart from Washington's expanded bail-out of the embattled auto sector, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing up 2.2%. The Dow is off nearly 35% so far this year.

The mainland European bourses that opened for a half day drifted marginally upwards but still registered their worst yearly losses for decades. The CAC-40 in Paris notched up a decline of 43%, the worst run in its 20-year history. Germany's Dax-30 closed down 40.4% yesterday while Italy's MIB-30 was off 48.5% and Spain's Ibex-35 down 47.5%.

The worst-performing stockmarket over the year was Russia's, where the benchmark RTS index plunged by 72%. Second worst hit was China's benchmark Shanghai composite index, which plummeted 65% - its largest-ever annual drop - after soaring more than 300% over 2006 and 2007.

"China's economy is obviously at a turning point. There are too many uncertainties, and past huge losses have made investors increasingly cautious," said Cheng Weiqing, an analyst at Citic Securities in Beijing.

Many investors are hoping for a better year in 2009, taking heart from the stock gains seen during December. "If there's any optimism, it's on the basis that stockmarkets recover in recessions," said "Now we have the real recession, rather than the phoney recession. Last year we were so optimistic that we were fooling ourselves. It's gone too far the other way."

Buik said the outlook for the UK was mixed. "With the dole queue likely to increase to 2.5 million by the end of May 2009, and with corporate profits in the next quarter likely to fall by 15% and with the housing market continuing to retrench, the immediate outlook for equities is unappetising," he said. "However, with many companies still paying reasonable dividends, the UK stockmarket should rally strongly in the second half of the year with the FTSE ending at 5000, as the UK attempts to dig itself out of recession."

Across Asia, stocks suffered record falls over the year, a painful change from its once-booming markets. In Tokyo, the benchmark Nikkei closed for the year yesterday having recorded the biggest annual percentage loss in its 58-year history. Modest gains in December - the first since May - did little to mitigate a yearly loss of 42% after the world's second-largest economy sank into recession.

In Hong Kong, also in recession, the Hang Seng index ended the year 48% lower, its worst annual drop since the global oil shock of the early 1970s. India's main index in Mumbai plummeted by 52%.

The South African stock exchange lost 27% this year and the rand slipped almost 30%

To expect the best in 2009 is just being unrealistic.

About the Author

For More Important Updates & Predictions Regarding The Economy Please Visit Our YOUTUBE Channel ==> http://www.youtube.com/myspacesecrets

ILUSTRASI TRADING PLAN (SELL) NIKEI

A S U M S I :

1.Trend : Down Trend

2. Range 7700 – 9575

3. Entry Point : 8700 (Sell 1 Lot)

4. Management Resiko : Average +/- 400 pts jika market melawan

5. Trading plan ini tidak berlaku untuk Day Trading

6. Apabila index tidak bisa menembus 9575 maka Down Trend akan dilanjutkan

7. Koreksi Teknikal jika harga bergerak naik dari 7700 s.d 9575 sbb :

Fibonaci Retracement :

PENJELASAN:

A. RATIO

Total Potensial Risk : Total Potensial Profit : -(475 + 875)pts X USD 5 (1875+1400+1000) )pts X USD 5 = - USD 6750 = USD 21375

Ratio Risk : Profit

USD 6750 : USD 21375

1 : 3.1

B. BREAK EVENT POINT (BEP) :

8700 + 9100 + 9575 = 27375 = 9125 (BEP)……

(Koreksi Teknikal 23,6%) 3 LOT 3 LOT

C. JUMLAH DANA YANG DIBUTUHKAN :

Total Potensial Risk + Jumlah Lot (Margin Requirement Overnight)

USD 6750 + 3 lot (USD 2000/lot) = USD 6750 + USD 6000 = USD 12,750

D. KETAHANAN DANA (SUSTAINING) :

Asumsi, jika market bergerak naik terlebih dahulu maka :

New Balance : USD 12,750

Floating P/L : USD 6,750 –

Equity : USD 6000

1. Call Margin(CM): Kondisi jika Equity < MR(Overnight) X 70%

Equity… = USD 6,000

MR (Overnight)X 70% = (3 lot X USD 2000/lot) X 70%

= USD 4,200 – USD 1,800 - (USD 1,800 ) : (USD 5) = 360 pts = 120 pts 3 lot

Jadi, investor akan terkena CM (Overnight) di harga 575 + 120 = 9695

2. Autolock (AL) : Kondisi jika Equity < MR(Day trade) X 30 %

Equity…= USD 6,000

MR (Day Trade)X 30% = (3 lot X USD 1,000) X 30%

= USD 900 –USD 5.100 - (USD 5,100) : (USD 5) = 1020 pts = 340 pts 3 lot

Jadi,investor akan terkena AL di harga 9575 + 340 = 9915

Kronologis Ekonomi terhadap Indek Hang Seng Nikkei

Hongkong :

Pemerintah AS mengatakan akan berinvestasi sebesar 20 miliar usd di Citigroup dan menjadi 306 miliar usd risky asset mereka.

Rencana bailout tersebut mendongkrak Dow Jones Industrial Average hingga 4,93 persen pada posisi 8.443,39. "Saya perkirakan market dibuka menguat dan mencatat gain 4-5 persen hari ini berkenaan dengan sangat kuatnya Wall Street dan Eropa setelah rescue Citigroup," kata Francis Lun, general manager di Fulbright Securities.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (25 Nopember 2008)

Saham-saham Amerika membukukuan rally terbesarnya dalam dua hari sejak 1987 setelah pemerintah US. memberikan garansi sebesar $306 miliar atas masalah keuangan dan kebijakan yang dihadapi Citigroup Inc.

Citigroup yang telah mengalami kerugian sebesar 60 persen pada transaksi dalam minggu terakhir ini, mengalami rebound sebesar 58 persen setelah Treasury juga memberikan inject sebesar $20 miliar.

Pemerintah AS setuju untuk memberikan bailout hingga US$ 20 miliar kepada Citigroup. Bank terbesar kedua AS itu kini sedang berjuang melawan ganasnya krisis yang menyebabkan harga sahamnya terus merosot. Di bawah kesepakatan itu, Citigroup sepakat untuk mengaplikasikan pembatasan gaji para eksekutifnya dan program modifikasi FDIC untuk mortgage.

saham Citigroup merosot hingga 60% dan mencapai titik terendahnya sejak Desember 1992.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (24 Nopember 2008)

Presiden terpilih Obama akan memilih Timothy Geithner, gubernur bank sentral bagian New York, sebagai menteri keuangan AS.

Geithner akan diberi tugas mengatasi krisis keuangan AS terbesar dalam tujuh dekade, termasuk penyelamatan American International Group Incorporation dan Bears Stearns Cos serta memutuskan Lehman Brothers Holdings Incorporation.

Geithner berpengalaman mengatasi kriris yang melanda Asia pada periode 1997-1998 dan dipercaya mampu mengatasi krisis yang melanda negara tersebut. Pasar menilai Geithner tidak hanya menangani masalah di sektor jasa keuangan namun juga krisis di industri otomotif yang ikut terjerembab karena kesulitan likuiditas dan telah memakan korban seperti GM dan Ford.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (23 Nopember 2008)

ANALISA TEKNIK :

Hangseng akan dibuka turun yang dipicu dari penurunan terhadap Wall Street semalam. Level TARGET hari ini berada di level 11800. Apabila level tersebut berhasil dilewati maka indeks akan mencoba menuju 11500 sebagai support selanjutnya namun perlu adanya konfirmasi terlebih dahulu di level 11700.

Untuk hari ini diperkirakan fokus masih tetap akan terletak pergerakan harga minyak dunia, pergerakan dollar amerika, pergerakan dari pasar China dan data ekonomi amerika lebih lanjut.

Indeks HSI diperkirakan akan berkisar pada level 11500 - 12350 hari Jum'at ini, TARGET berada di level 11800 dengan kondisi Downtrend namun waspadai adanya kenaikan apabila indeks gagal tembus level 11800 dan 11500.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (21 Nopember 2008)

Jepang :

Krisis ekonomi global telah menular ke perekonomian Jepang yang intensif, menyebabkan penurunan pada eksport nasional Jepang dalam tujuh tahun terakhir pada Oktober sehingga mendorong trade ballace Jepang defisit.

Investor juga masih fokus pada pada data demand Amerika setelah penurunan tajam CPI US periode Oktober yang telah disampaikan. Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing pada Jujiya Securities mengatakan,"Hal ini akan berdampak negatif pada perekonomian US dan juga pada Ekonomi Global."

Nikkei .N225 jatuh 357.59 poin ke level 7,915.63, tergelincir ke bawah level 8,000 untuk pertama kalinya sejak akhir Oktober dan memecahkan rekor level terendah dalam tiga minggu pada level 7,890.56 diawal sesi.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (21 Nopember 2008)

Amerika :

Saham General Motor tenggelam lebih dari 15 persen ke harga terendahnya dalam 66 tahun terakhir, sementara pesaingnya Ford terhempas pada harga terendah dalam 26 tahun, terjadi setelah kekhawatir para investor terhadap tidak adanya langkah yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dalam waktu dekat untuk menyelesaikan masalah pada industri ini sebelum terjadi penarikan untuk pailit.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (20 Nopember 2008)

Persetujuan Kontrak Gulir Emas US DOLLAR

Pada tanggal 19 September 2008, Kepala BAPPEBTI telah mengeluarkan persetujuan atas usulan Kontrak KGE USD dengan surat persetujuan Nomor: 388/BAPPEBTI/9/2008.

KGE USD merupakan pengembangan atas Subyek Kontrak Berjangka Emas (KBE) yang sudah diperdagangkan sebelumnya di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta, yaitu : Kontrak Berjangka Emas (KBE), Kontrak Gulir Indeks Emas (KIE), Kontrak Gulir Emas (KGE) Rupiah dan Kontrak Gulir Emas US Dollar (KGE USD).

Total keseluruhan kontrak yang diperdagangkan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta dengan dikeluarkannya persetujuan atas Kontrak Gulir Emas US Dollar (KGE USD) sampai dengan bulan September 2009 sebanyak 41 subyek kontrak terdiri dari :

• Komoditi Primer (Riil Kontrak) sebanyak 5 Kontrak;


• Skema Penyaluran Amanat Luar Negeri (PALN) sebanyak 9 Kontrak;


• Skema Kontrak Sistem Perdagangan Alternatif (SPA) sebanyak 27 Kontrak;

Test Wakil Pialang Berjangka

Selamat atas suksesnya pelaksanaan Test Wakil Pialang - WPB Kontrak di Mall Kemayoran Jakarta hari ini, semoga memberikan angin baru yang kesekian kalinya dalam memberikan support tenaga professional di bidang perdagangan berjangka. Lakukan yang terbaik adalah bagian dari profesionalis Wakil Pialang Berjangka . Siapa saja pesertanya ?